Let's
talk about the next 20 years. No
more, no less. This is the time
of a generation. Many trends which
will affect this period of time
are already existing now. It is
then up to us to try to identify
them, to understand where they may
lead; and then to choose which of
the possible roads we want to build.
The
last EU Summit finally clarifies
the future outcome for Turkey, and
therefore for the whole EU neighbourhood,
as it is obviously proving that
there will be no way out of a privileged
partnership for Turkey as well.
Leaders' summit may indeed sometimes
prove the contrary of what they
seem to say (for more explanation,
read Newropeans-Magazine editorial
of Monday December 20th, in French).
Ukraine will definitely enter within
the same category of EU partners.
The
privileged partnership will be granted
to countries to which the EU institutions
(Council, Commission, Parliament)
gives a greenlight for starting
accession membership, while the
EU population will refuse to give
the final 'OK' for this membership.
France and Austria have decided
to establish referenda for future
EU enlargements (after Romania,
Bulgaria and Croatia); and they
will be joined by at least half
of EU Member States by 2010. So
from 2010 on, enlargements will
have to stand a 'double conditionality'
test: institutions approval plus
people's approval.
In
the case of Turkey, the process
will involve some turmoil in coming
5 years but by 2010 a smoother process
will take over, managed by the generation
who will de facto deal with those
issues, the current 30/40 years
old generation (and not our current
EU leaders generation).
Concerning
Ukraine, the process will be much
easier, as from the very beginning
EU accession will not be an option
(contrarily to what some Polish
leaders tend to obtain by supporting
Turkish membership). As part of
our neighbourhood, Ukraine will
be heavily supported by the EU in
order to reach both economical development
and democratic gouvernance. Such
core aims will be similar for the
whole 'neighbourhood ark' ranging
from Moscow to Rabat.
Meanwhile,
being part of our common neighbourhood
with Russia, Ukraine will be, for
the EU, a major component of the
future EU/Russia relations. As elaborated
during the GlobalEurope 2020 seminar
in Warsaw, last February, such a
future EU/Russia relation will give
a high priority to this common neighbourhood,
which psychologically belongs to
both 'identity spheres': the EU
one and the Russian one.
The
EU will be extremely strict, as
demonstrated during the current
Ukrainian elections crisis, regarding
political evolutions in these countries:
the democratic process should and
will be supported. Any interference
of Moscow in order to reverse this
trend will generate immediate counter-action
from the EU in the field of financial,
economical or technological cooperation.
But,
as a paramount objective of both
the neighbourhood policy and the
EU/Russia policy is to bring peace
and stability in the region, the
EU will be very keen in preventing
any move which could generate legitimate
security threats for one or the
other player. This parameter will
be very important for the EU till
Russia has not chosen to enter a
sustainable path towards democracy,
and may therefore be subject to
unpredictible evolutions.
For
these reasons, in the coming two
decades, the EU will not accept
any enlargement to countries within
this 'common neighbourhood' area;
neither will it support any NATO
extension into this part of the
world. In terms of security, it
will be up to the EU to strengthen
its web of economical, political,
cultural, financial, technological
and military instruments in order
to make peace the best choice for
each regional player. Looking at
the fast pace of EU Foreign and
Security Policy development, this
task will most probably be fullfilled
in the coming 3/5 years.
By
2020/2025, it will be up to the
generations leading the EU (and
Ukraine, and Russia) at that very
moment, to look forward for alternative
ways of cooperation, if needed.
In between let's build a road which
leads to a better region, with democracy,
prosperity and peace on the agenda.
