After holiday recess, TIESWEB op-eds, ‘Transatlantically Incorrect’, are back on track. Significantly, Transatlantic Vision section has been merged with Incorrect one … because we believe that there is no way anymore to have any meaningful vision of future EU/US relations while staying politically correct. So much for the dominant flow of academic, think-tanks and experts contributions to major newspapers or specialized foreign policy magazines!

Here we stand: somewhere between ‘the Gate to Tomorrow’s World and the Gate to Hell’, far away from the ‘Gate to Heaven’

We are indeed back into reality, but a new reality moving away from the post WWII one. After months of intense propaganda from all sides and complex debates between experts, smoke screens are fading away and let us see the new world disorder as it stands.

Mid-March 2003 I contributed an article to EU-Observer entitled Upon whom will the ashes of Baghdad fall down? Three major scenarios for the post Gulf War II world disorder .
Some thought I was too pessimistic by having only one positive scenario for Washington. Last weeks news are showing that reality is shaping up as a combination of the two ‘bad for America’ scenarios. They were called ‘The Gate to Hell? The US Administration war nightmare’ and ‘The Gate to tomorrow’s world? The US landing painfully into history, with the UN to rebuild’. Among the main consequences I was forecasting were the following:

. the US will loose most of its moral credibility, patiently built up by generations of Americans.
. the cost of the war (which will not be paid by the allies) will drag US deficits of all kinds towards deeper negative trends, enhancing already existing tensions within the US in terms of funds for education, for social protection, for environmental protection, … and for job-creation.
. Europeans will move forward to forge a European Foreign and Security policy.
. UN has to come at the rescue of US/UK
. US weakness creates a big vacuum in world order and weakens the whole international community
. Prime Minister Blair will face major internal troubles
. in the US a major political crisis will start with two sides getting more and more at odds: the Bush side complaining of lack of support from allies and Democrats; while Democrats call for a ‘regime change’ in the US.

No need to elaborate on all these ‘possibilities’. Now most of them make the news everyday. The ashes of Baghdad are indeed falling upon the US.

Washington has thrown power, money and credibility through the window;
none come back easily

But beside Iraq crisis, where does exactly Washington’s power stand when we look at some crucial factors determining actual strength ? Let’s take a look at some core factors:

- World public opinions: lost all around the planet. A trend difficult to reverse; an important factor in a globalized world where image also speaks for business, culture, education, … .
- European public opinions: drifting away. for the first time since WWII, they think that US policy and European values may not fit together. A big blow to any future US global leadership as Europeans are both THE other big player in most fields (economy, science, trade, …) and the most likely natural ally in all occasions.
- Partnerships: trading strong ones for weak ones. France and Germany somehow in limbo; UK put in midst of major political crisis. Setting up lists of ‘coalition’ states whose size, means and power are irrelevant to most international security issues will not match those who are missing.
- Leadership role: non-existing as by putting UN aside and failing to win a strike, Washington finds itself now on the sideline, by underestimating the problems it puts the whole international community in a mess. In fact, Washington implemented a ‘reverse-leadership’ … taking its followers into troubles rather than out-of troubles.
- Vision: wishful thinking. Criticizing international organizations like UN (which indeed need reform) with no alternative being offered other than ‘just do what I say’ is no alternative vision for tomorrow’s world. While mixing God, an Imperial destiny and Oil do not build a 21st century vision of any country.
- SuperPower: showing one’s own limits. obvious limits to US power have emerged from Iraq crisis: lack of money, lack of civilian expertise for abroad operations, lack of anticipation, … .

Of course one can always say that Saddam’s army was rapidly defeated. And so what? Nobody was doubting this would be the case in the end. The issue always was ‘ the day after’, the very day when dust comes down and smoke fades away, the very day when strength or weakness do reveal themselves, when illusion or deception face reality and truth.

Post Iraq war trauma will affect deeply EU-US relations

Inside and outside the US, assessment of post-Iraq situation is only beginning. But it will definitely bear a painful cost for US power and position in the world. Many things are still unclear, especially internal costs of all this within US society and politics. But outside the US, and particularly in Europe (because more was to be lost there than in other parts of the world), US losses are big in terms of everything which creates leadership standing for democracy and freedom: moral credibility, trust, vision, prioritisation of challenges, ability to gather rather than divide.

I do not think that there is anything to compare with Vietnam because at that time most of US allies where looking at the war through the Cold War prism which in the end was giving some legitimacy to US acts. This time, no such prism exists. ‘War on terror’ is not shaping people’s mind as did Cold War. Therefore US actions are seen by the outside world for what they are. In the 70s, post Vietnam trauma was a pure internal US phenomenon; this time, post Iraq trauma will be a global phenomenon.

For all those who care about EU/US relations and try to foster a sound Transatlantic relation, next months and years will be difficult. Maybe as much as it used to be within the US to heal wounds between pro and anti Vietnam war supporters.

Some in the US may dislike what I am saying in this article as some did with my three scenarios last March. But I always shared the idea that a friend should speak the truth when tough times are coming. To me, such stormy weather is a reason to increase efforts, to ‘keep on keeping on’ building new bridges between Americans and Europeans, but not by hiding some tough realities from my friends’eyes.