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Middle East 2020 : the region which needs two “dreams”
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by
Franck Biancheri:
President of TIESWeb and Director for Studies and Strategy
of Europe 2020.
12/03/2004 |
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Two years ago, at the
first Miami Transatlantic Week, participants
and speakers from two sides of the Atlantic
declared that it was time for both European
and American civil societies to help
Arabs and Israelis to build up a peaceful
and democratic Middle East. In following
months, almost every Transatlantic “expert”
found totally absurd the whole idea
of any long term Transatlantic effort
in this region. In coming 3 months,
this very question “how to democratise
Middle East?” will be topping
the agendas of all major Transatlantic
leaders meetings (from Nato to EU/US
summits).
Another example of
the use of experts when dealing with
new situations. But let’s concentrate
on the core question;why do Transatlantic
leaders get so focused now on Middle
East long term future:
- Why Middle East? Because following
September 11th, the war in Iraq, the
neverending war between Israel and
Palestine, and our oil obsession,
it is obvious that this region of
the world has to be transformed in
one way or the other if we want to
avoid that it sets other regions in
fire.
- Why was 2020 chosen as a deadline?
Because you cannot root democracy
in less than a generation.
- Why democracy? Because till now
(but of course the war in Iraq is
questioning a bit this conviction)
democracies do not wage wars and are
able to bring prosperity to a whole
region as we have seen in past decades
from Europe to Asia.
- Why a Transatlantic effort? Because
both the European Union and the USA
are agreeing on the previous answers;
because they are the two main powers
who have an influence on the region
in terms of economy, politics and
trade; and because they both are eager
for oil which give them a strong motivation
to be an important player in this
part of the world.
So
good for the common reasons. Because
many elements are also splitting the
two players.
On
the one hand Washington is willing to
implement a very pro-active policy using
classical instruments (sticks and carrots)
to push Arab regime towards American-style
democratic systems, using the shockwawes
of Iraq invasion to oblige Arab regimes
to change. Meanwhile it looks at a region
which goes far beyond the Arab world
as it has a clear priority which is
to enhance Israel protection; while
it is integrating in its plans countries
like Iran, Afghanistan or Pakistan (which
are belonging to totally different cultural
areas).
On
the other hand the European Union is
willing to use its existing ties with
the region especially the ‘EuroMed’
policy which developed in the 90s a
specific set of agreements between the
EU and 12 countries from Southern and
Eastern Mediterranean area and is based
upon cooperation with local governments;
while it does not consider at all to
include Central Asia or Iran inside
such a Middle East policy because they
share very different issues; and on
the contrary the EU wants to include
Israel as part of the Middle East problem.
Obviously
diplomats from both sides of the Atlantic
have a long way to go before they may
agree on any concrete action. But those
important differences are nevertheless
nothing compare to the major flaw of
both strategies: they do not have
any credible levy to reach out Arabic
population.
To
shape up a different future for any
human community, you need a strong and
attractive “dream” which
will allow this community and the individuals
it gathers to push for changes, accept
short term negative consequences and
stay deaf to all those voices which
are going to call for refusing the change.
You need this “dream” to
motivate the youth, and in particular,
the “young elites” which
are going to provide the local or sectorial
leadership you need to implement the
changes.
Without such a “dream”
the “sticks and carrots”
will be as effective as it has been
with nation building or regime change
in past decades: that is to say totally
ineffective. Without such a “dream”,
cooperation with local governments will
just lead nowhere as there will be no
internal pressure.
And
in this region, not only do we need
a “dream” to implement democratic
changes, but we need two “dreams”:
a dream for the Arabs as such (see
report of Europe 2020 seminar of future
relations between EU and Arab world)
and a “joint dream” for
Arabs and Israelis together (see
Middle East 2020 project).
At least in Europe after WWII, we only
needed one: European unity. It was simpler.
But
let’s face the challenge of Middle
East: two “dreams” are needed.
If nothing is done with younger generations
to shape them up, the Arab unity dream
on one side, the Arab-Israeli common
dream on the other side, both Europe
and the US may keep on discussing: their
summits will lead nowhere, but to more
conflicts involving more and more directly
both the US and the EU.
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